The artillery fire not only hit the land, but also cast a deep shadow on Ukraine's atmosphere, forests, soil and oceans.

Recently, the EU Joint Research Center (JRC) released the "Status of Environment and Climate in Ukraine", which systematically analyzed the profound impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on Ukraine's ecological environment for the first time and put forward scientific suggestions for its post-war reconstruction. This 96-page report reveals the grim status of Ukraine in air pollution, forest degradation, soil erosion, Black Sea pollution and other fields, while emphasizing how the war has exacerbated the complexity of environmental governance.

The report pointed out that Ukraine has made significant progress in climate action since 2010 and has worked hard to align its environmental strategy with EU standards, but the Russian-Ukrainian war that began in 2022 has led to the release of potentially toxic elements from military activities, exacerbating environmental damage. At the same time, the war has also weakened Ukraine's ability to monitor and respond to environmental changes.

On the one hand, the war has led to a reduction in industrial production and the destruction of energy facilities, and greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced. On the other hand, military operations, the redistribution or deterioration of pollution, and the increased risk of forest fires have all led to new greenhouse gas emissions. Chemicals in munitions and other pollutants, as well as damage to inland waterways and marine infrastructure, may have long-term effects on human health and the biodiversity of ecosystems, especially those in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian environmental crisis under the shadow of conflict

1. Air pollution

Ukraine is one of the countries with the most serious air pollution in Europe, with an average annual PM_2.5 concentration ranking ninth in Europe.

From 2018 to 2022, the annual average concentrations of Ukrainian air pollutants SO₂, NO, CO and total suspended matter met national air quality standards, while the concentrations of NO₂ and CH₂O were higher than national air quality standards.

(Image source: "Status of Environment and Climate in Ukraine")

In the capital, Kyiv, the annual concentrations of fine particulate matter, particulate matter PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were below the EU annual limit, but above the more stringent World Health Organization guidelines.

In the past decade, the emission trends of pollutants and greenhouse gases have been affected by the COVID-19 prevention and control measures and the intensification of the war in 2022. The regions with the highest emissions are Donetsk Autonomous Region, Dnipropetrovsk Autonomous Region, Kyiv City, Zaporizhka Autonomous Region, Ivano-Frankivsky Autonomous Region and Kyiv City.

Emissions from the power generation sector have been on a downward trend since 2016, while emissions from mobile sources were on an upward trend until 2019, then declined.

Total greenhouse gas emissions (including land use, land use change and forestry - LULUCF) fell by 5.6% in the period 2016-2020. By 2021, Ukraine's greenhouse gas emissions have been significantly reduced (-62.5% compared to 1990), although there is still a 7.5% increase compared to 2020 levels, mainly due to the resumption of industrial activities after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since 2022, the damage caused by the war to industrial and energy facilities has led to a decline in greenhouse gas emissions (23%-26% less in 2022 than in 2021), and new greenhouse gas emissions related to military operations have emerged, reaching 77 million tons of CO2 equivalent in the first 18 months.

In addition, the backward monitoring network (only 24 automatic monitoring stations), PM standards not aligned with the EU, and insufficient data transparency have seriously hindered pollution prevention and control.

2. Forest crisis

Although forests cover only about one-fifth of its territory, Ukraine's forest area ranks among the highest among European countries.

The impact of the war on forests is equally alarming. It is estimated that about 1.7 million hectares of forests have been affected by the war, accounting for about 15% of Ukraine's total forest cover.

Over the past few decades, climate change has increased the risk of large forest fires, especially in the last five years. Wildfires cause 45%-65% of the loss of forest cover in Ukraine each year. Since the outbreak of military operations in February 2022, pressure on forest resources has increased due to severe deforestation and habitat destruction, as well as the threat of explosive residues and wildfires.

According to the JRC analysis, Ukraine suffered a record number of wildfires in 2024. The area burned reached 965,000 hectares, more than twice the area burned in the entire EU region during the same period. Most major fires occurred in dry and hot weather on the front line.

3. Soil degradation

Ukraine has one of the most fertile soils in the world, with black soil covering nearly two-thirds of the country's agricultural land. Agriculture is one of Ukraine's main economic activities, and soil health is vital to Ukraine.

Ukraine's soils are high in organic matter and rich in nutrients. Due to poor nutrient management, acidification, erosion, compaction, salinization and pollution, the soil is at risk of degradation. Erosion is the most common threat, affecting 40% of Ukraine's soil. The damage is exacerbated by toxic elements such as lead, mercury and arsenic released by the war. These elements can have serious consequences for public health by infiltrating the food chain.

Scientists at the Ukrainian Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry estimate that the war has so far degraded more than 10 million hectares of agricultural land in Ukraine. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine involves the deployment of advanced military technology, such as 1,500 to 3,000 kg aerial bombs, ballistic missiles, large-scale fires, toxic chemicals, and more. Therefore, the environmental impacts of these military operations are likely to be much more severe than anything previously recorded.

Experience in other conflict zones shows that in areas such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where fighting has been intense, it can take decades or even centuries for soil to recover. Although there is no comprehensive assessment of soils affected by military activities, it is clear that dealing with the environmental consequences of war will be a major challenge in addressing global issues.

4. Black Sea Ecology

The Black Sea is under tremendous pressure from human activities, including nutrient and pollutant overload (including microplastics), intensive maritime traffic, climate change, fisheries, and invasive species. Plant protection products are a major source of emerging pollutants.

The war has greatly increased the pressure on the marine environment and water infrastructure, mainly including: increased risk of oil spills; spread of chemical pollutants; escalation of marine noise pollution; changes in water cycle and chemical properties; systematic destruction of habitats; and damage to water infrastructure.

Since 2022, there has been growing concern about increased chemical emissions and habitat destruction caused by military operations, both of which will have long-term consequences. However, environmental monitoring has been impossible since the outbreak of the war due to inconvenient coastline transportation and the inability to conduct marine surveys.

Ukraine's path to green reconstruction

The conflict not only destroyed the monitoring network, but also hindered the implementation of regulations and law enforcement capabilities, making it difficult to timely warn and control environmental risks. Although military destruction has led to a temporary decrease in emissions, it has left an irreversible "legacy" of pollution at the soil, water and biodiversity levels. During the reconstruction period, it is necessary to give priority to restoring and upgrading environmental monitoring facilities, incorporating international standards and making data public; at the same time, green low-carbon, circular economy and ecological restoration should be integrated into urban and infrastructure reconstruction plans.

The Ukraine Plan 2024-2027 is a key tool for the country's recovery, reconstruction and modernization, and is expected to accelerate Ukraine's accession to the European Union with the support of this mechanism. The plan prioritizes incorporating green goals into its reconstruction and recovery efforts, ensuring that future reforms and investments are environmentally sustainable.

The Ukraine Plan can leverage five key areas of actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the local authorities’ plan:

− Prioritizing reforms and investments in energy efficiency

− Promoting electrification of public transport fleet and urban transport planning

− Accelerating the modernisation of Ukraine’s District heating networks

− Integrating adaptation measures from local authorities into the implementation of the national strategy for adaption to address extreme heat and floods & mass movements 

− Widening awareness, ownership and involvement of citizens

The war has profoundly changed Ukraine's environmental landscape, with traditional pollution reduction and emerging risks coexisting. Reconstruction needs to balance short-term repair and long-term sustainability, with environmental legislation, local action and international cooperation as the core paths. In addition, continued scientific research and long-term monitoring will be the cornerstone of achieving environmental protection and climate goals and protecting people's health and ecological security.

Author：Qinger